Well I have had 2 succesfull chases this year. One particular chase took place June 3rd 2009, starting in Rexburg and then I drove to the 15 and headed South to around Blackfoot. I encountered 1 inch hail and was afraid the windhield or van might get damaged. I got lucky to say the least. Once i got out of the hail I noticed a storm to my south was developing and had a wall cloud.
The storm was Severe Warned for hail and wind and in the warning there was mention of slight rotation. I watched from Right off the Interstate 15 Highway till the storm eventually weakened and got into the Highlands/Mountains.
There was also June 5 2009, The Incredible Complex Line of storms that moved North and stayed mainly in the Snake River plain. As the Line progressed North the Storm filled in from West to East and Intensified. By the time It reached Idaho Falls it went severe and the fun began. I filmed and shot photos from my Backyard all the way till the storm got directly overhead. The storm was warned for winds and possible hail and there was also rotation. 63mph winds occured over my area along with Pea sized hail and a few slightly larger than 1/4 inch.
There are storms predicted thru next week and occasional Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible. On days that storms can develop from strong to severe I will be active trying to get footage. Its an active year so far and we are only in June.
Keep an eye on the youtube channel and Photo Gallery for updates. I know I havent been updating this blog lately and will try to fit in more time to update you guys on whats going on.
Have a great Weekend and keep checking back for new photos and video.
Have you noticed the Heat lately and the latest intrusion of Clouds. This is all Monsoonal Moisture that has made it into our area. The Monsoon is actually wreaking havoc in parts of California where they had Mudslides and one of these incidents even tore thru a very Popular Fishing Hatchery off the 395 highway which devastated there trout inventory. There was even a tornado reported in Southern California. So the Monsoon is definetely active in the Southwest. What will it be like for our area? Thus far local NWS has mention of thunderstorms for mostly higher terrain including the Wy/Mo borders. For our immediate area we seem to be stuck in the wind zone and with very low humidities we are currently under a Red flag warning and fire watch. If the storms that pop up over the higher terrain have any dry lightning we will definetely see the beginning of the fire season starting tonight and into tomorrow. There is always that chance that these storms could roll off from the Southwest into our area moving Northeast. If this occurs we will see strong downburst winds and maybe some ehavy downpours and dangerous Cloud to ground lightning.
If you didnt know already, There are several Monsoon stormchasers chasing the storms from Arizona and into Nevada and I will be adding there links here so you can go visit them and see the wonders of the Southwest Monsoon. First off, My Favorite Monsoon stormchaser/lightning photographer Susan Strom is busy chasing these storms. Be sure to visit http://www.lightninglady.com/ for some Amazing Lightning Photographs.
So will the Monsoon create Thunderstorms and lightning for us? The easiest way to answer this is is to Mention the 4 corner highs. If the 4 corner high sets up perfectly with a low to the southwest of California we will definetely be seeing some storms. The current setup is just enough for a very small amount of Moisture to make it to our region. With a stronger push of Moisture we will get humid, very hot and then the chances for a storm is Ideal. So keep those fingers crossed.
June 15 is now the offical start to the Monsoon as declared by the NWS offices in Arizona. Does that mean the winds have have shifted? No, Before this Year Arizona NWS offices would Declare the start of the Monsoon when Dewpoints would reach 55 degree Dewpoints for 3 days straight, this was the usual indicator of the Monsoon. Starting this Year the Monsoon will be Calendar Based and we only hope that Mother Nature will cooperate with the start date. Today there were several storms on the Arizona/Mexico border. There is also a Huge Upper High pressure building fast over the 4 corner region and this could be an indicator of things to come. Already there is Dry convection occuring our area to the North near Island Park. I imagine the Fire weather threat will get off to a quick start since this weeks Forecast Highs look to be in the 80’s to mid 80’s with very low humidities (very dry air). The Mountains of Idaho already have Thunder in there forecast while us in the Plain and Upper Plain will see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Some convection could suprise us, but not expecting any thunderstorms or dry ones for that matter since Models and Forecasts dont really show much in the way of Thunderstorm activity.
Not much else to update on really. I have been spending some evenings near the South Fork of the Snake river fishing with my nephews. We have been doing pretty good as well. Thus far we have caught a 4 pound Male Brown, 3 pound Female Brown, tons of rainbows (1-2 pound) and even caught a couple of Cutthroats which we released, matter of fact all the fish we have caught so far has been Catch and Release. It makes it fun, plus we dont waste the catch by freezer burn if you know what I am talking about. I am anxiously awaiting some Thunderstorm activity and hope to have a great photo op soon. Cross those fingers… =)
After a rather cloudy and rainy morning the Clouds are clearing and this is good news for instability. With a High Near 80 expected today I am guessing we could see marginal instability with the chance for Strong storms and alot of rain. Already South of the Snake Plain and Into Utah and Nevada several Thunderstorms already pulsing as strong and severe with several to many Watches and Warnings being issued in Utah and Nevada and soon Idaho. It appears that the Best day for strong to severe storms is tommorow for The Snake River plain, Upper Snake River plain, etc. With substantial clearing and heating I do believe we will meet the criteria as SPC already has us in the Slight Risk which is cause for concern for Damaging Wind and Hail.
The Concern today will be Frequent lightning in and near the strongest of storms which could ignite new fires and also the rain is an issue for recently Burned area’s.
Im waiting for the afternoon Update from Local NWS. Will update ASAP…..
A Rather interesting weather scenario for Southeast Idaho is slowly coming together on models and Local NWS offices are slowly making sense of it all. It appears a strong Monsoonal Moisture surge will occur starting Tuesday Morning, with this a Strong Upper Level Low is coming in from the Pacific Coast which will also interact with the Upper Jet which could possibly make for Thunderstorms and wetting rains. Models are depicting high moisture readings and daytime highs could make for marginal instability. The thoughts thus far for the Storm prediction center is that Marginal instability will occur for the possibility of Thunderstorm Line segments with Strong winds and some possibly large hail, However the SPC is still uncertain on amount of Daytime Heating. If Surface heating is substantial enough we could see a severe weather event. The reason I mention this is that Models are suggesting a High QPF reading, the more moisture available along with effective surface heating (lifted index) could be enough for possible Organized convection capable of Strong Updrafts which could in turn bring us Large hail and damaging winds.
Being only 1 day out, I can say that we should expect Weak to moderate in strength Thunderstorms along with heavy rain, some winds capable of 40+ mph and Hail up to pea size. By tonight and Tuesday Morning I will have a better idea of what is to be expected and will further update this blog with whats to be expected.
My last post I mentioned things could get very interesting around here, even though my excitement levels will not extend to those of you who live in the northern tier of states! Unfortunately not much of the 2207 summer monsoon has had the chance to make it any farther than the desert southwest! But for those who are living adjacent to the Mexican border, should be looking for an increasing chance of intense rainfall courtesy of remnant moisture from a former Hurricane, by the end of the week.
Now of course timing is everything, but how this storm interacts with frontal boundaries, could be the difference between a huge rainfall event, and a cooling off which in either case is a win, win for us in the desert southwest! If Henriette’s path is tweaked slightly farther North than this model depicts, this remnant moisture could possibly come bodily into the state of Arizona in 3-5 days! Now the chances of this happening is slim but this still needs to be addressed in the likely hood that it does! remnants of storms have affected us from time to time; My excitement is tempered somewhat because it seems that when you want something bad enough like “RAIN” you could scare it away. Not that I ‘am superstitious or anything!
1970…Tropical Storm Norma…Arizona’s deadliest storm…
More commonly known as “The Labor Day storm of 1970”, the remains of tropical Storm Norma cause severe flooding in central portions of Arizona, and becomes Arizona’s most deadly storm. There are 23 deaths in central Arizona…including 14 from flash flooding on Tonto Creek in the vicinity of Kohl’s Ranch. Total rainfall at Workman Creek…about 30 miles north of Globe in the Sierra Ancha mountains…is 11.92 inches…with 11.40 inches falling in 24 hours. Other rainfall amounts include 9.09 at Upper Parker Creek…8.74 at Mount Lemmon…8.44 at Sunflower…8.08 at KittPeak…7.12 at the Tonto Creek Fish Hatchery…and 7.01 inches at Crown King. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/tropics/hurricanes.htm
Here are a few scenarios that could possibly play into Arizona weather in the next week, pretty interesting stuff!Here are a few scenarios that could possibly play into Arizona weather in the next week, pretty interesting stuff!
Courtesy of the Weather America Newsletter! While many hurricanes of eastern Pacific origin are never a threat to populated areas, Henriette may prove to be the rare and dangerous exception to climatology. Henriette will be picked up by a weakness over northern Baja CA, and may buffet coastal resorts such as Cabo San Lucas with 100 mph winds, huge swells and torrential rainfall. Complicating matters will be the possibility that the hurricane may find new life in the warm waters of the narrow Sea of Cortez in about three or four days. If ECMWF and GFS output verify, Henriette may affect parts of AZ….NM….W TX at the start of the medium rang with flooding rains and severe thunderstorms.
Courtesy ofUnisys/weather.com LONG TERM FORECAST ARIZONA NWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM
HENRIETTES MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO AZ LATER THIS WEEK ARE STILL (SORT
OF) QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER…THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE AND MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE HURRICANE CENTERS TRACK…AND THE GFS MODEL
TRACK OF THE REMAINS OF HENRIETTE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA…WITH ITS
DECAYING LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO TRACK DYING
HENRIETTE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK… ALTHOUGH ITS
FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. THE ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF AZ AND SOUTHEAST
CA…WED THROUGH FRI…DECREASING MARKEDLY SAT AND SUNDAY ALL SURROUNDING AZ OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE…
TRENDING HIGHER WITH PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF AZ… WED THROUGH
FRI… WITH WED BEING THE TRANSITION DAY. IF THE REMAINS OF
HENRIETTES LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ
FRIDAY…STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MUCH HIGHER PRECIP WATER
PORTENDS HEAVY RAINFALL…WHOSE POTENTIAL WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED
THE NEXT 2 DAYS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORMHENRIETTES MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO AZ LATER THIS WEEK ARE STILL (SORTOF) QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER…THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE AND MORECONSISTENCY WITH THE HURRICANE CENTERS TRACK…AND THE GFS MODELTRACK OF THE REMAINS OF HENRIETTE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA…WITH ITSDECAYING LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ BYLATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO TRACK DYINGHENRIETTE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK… ALTHOUGH ITSFARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. THE ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLYINCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF AZ AND SOUTHEASTCA…WED THROUGH FRI…DECREASING MARKEDLY SAT AND SUNDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORMHENRIETTES MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO AZ LATER THIS WEEK ARE STILL (SORTOF) QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER…THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE AND MORECONSISTENCY WITH THE HURRICANE CENTERS TRACK…AND THE GFS MODELTRACK OF THE REMAINS OF HENRIETTE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA…WITH ITSDECAYING LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ BYLATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO TRACK DYINGHENRIETTE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK… ALTHOUGH ITSFARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAYS FORECAST. THE ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLYINCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF AZ AND SOUTHEASTCA…WED THROUGH FRI…DECREASING MARKEDLY SAT AND SUNDAY
The meaning of the word “Arizona”, according to those who know more about this state than I do, their definition is: “little spring.” Now how boring is that? A majority of us who have lived here long enough, know that a more fitting translation for the word “Arizona” is in order. During the peak Summer season, when it is blazing hot outside a few names comes to mind at the top of my head, but for the sake of “keeping it clean” I must refrain from using expletives! My personal “clean”, choice would be Arid zone, now that is a fitting definition if I have ever seen one!
The summer of 2007 is going down in history as being one of the hottest, if not the hottest on record! Here in Phoenix Arizona we have just shattered the old record for days (28 ) over 110 degrees set back in 2002. We are bouncing right along with 32 days over that mark in 2007, and looking at forecasts, adding a few more days to that is not out of the realm of possibilities! If we do receive any beneficial “measurable rain” it always comes way to late in the afternoon, and then all the rain provides is a hot and humid night! But none of this rain has fallen into my rain gauge! Now places around town have gotten drenched, power poles down, flooding in normally dry washes, rainfall rates over 2 inches per hour have been reported, but here at my humble abode I seem to always miss the good stuff! Now I have taken rides with the family, chasing clouds and raindrops, so I have seen firsthand the intense rainfall! Even a funnel cloud!
Our 2007 summer monsoonal season has not disappointed a majority of us. We have had probably the longest period of time with dew points up into the high 60’s and low 70’s. I do not remember a time ( I have lived here since the early 1960’s ) that I have seen the valley that muggy for an extended period of time! With the positioning of a high center basically over the states of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado, the majority of the monsoonal moisture has been locked in tight down in the desert southwest! It never had the chance to get over that ridge and be shunted Northward into the states farther north. Here at the house we have received just barely under 4 inches for the year. But the mountains to our North and East have received over 200% of normal rainfall! That is good in a sense, that we have survived the fire season, and everything is so green and lush, running water everywhere! Now if we could possibly coax a nice winter snow pack from good old Mother nature onto all ready saturated ground, this could go along way into ending the 10-15 year drought we have been in! We will definitely cross our fingers on that one!
I have an updated Desert southwest forecast for this coming week that could be interesting especially for those who like rain and storms and such!
thanks for visiting, and special thanks to SevereIdaho, for allowing me to ramble on!
Well the weather has been relatively calm around the Upper Snake Plain. Few thunderstorms rumbled thru the area late afternoon yesterday bringing rain and a rumble of thunder or two. Having my car in the shop due to an alternator and battery problem I was stuck at the house watching the storms from my front yard. It was cool watching the clouds roll by and see a flash of lightning every now and then and the cool looking rain foot (or curtain,etc) that emerged from the storms. I imagine decent rain fell where the storms were.
The latest on Upcoming weather is a Strong Upper Level Low for Tuesday and Wednesday this coming week. Local NWS hasnt really had a good idea of how much moisture can be expected, if at all. As far as thoughts it will cool down quite a bit. We could see Highs anywhere from 60-70 and lows down to the 40’s in the snake river plain. The question of the day is will the daytime temperatures for both days be enough to promote instability and how much moisture will be present. If Moisture is around 1 inch qpf or more and enough instability is around, we could possibly see strong to severe storms. For now Im guessing the main event will be a drastic cooldown and nothing more. Im sure by Monday we will know alot more on what is coming.
After visiting the SPC website this evening I noticed 3 tornado reports for Southern California. The reports consisted of a Funnel cloud in Lancaster,Ca (2 reports) and 1 report for a Tornado in Kern County,CA which is Considered the Eastern Sierra’s. No pictures that I could find, but In recent years this has happened as well with the Monsoon being the culprit. In Most cases with the Monsoon in Southern California there is flash flooding, Dangerous winds and on occasion large hail. I will be checking for more info on these reports in the next 2 days and will update this blog accordingly.
Well, Fall will be here soon. Im sure there is foilage erupting in many parts of the nation and around the world. I am hoping to do some drives in the Peak Foilage season to update the gallery. Im also planning a Yellowstone trip. Stay Tuned.
thanks for stopping by and Have a Wonderful Labor Day……….
p/s- I just renewed the Domain for 2 additional Years. Offically SevereIdaho.Com has been online for 2 years. I hope for many more to come. Thanks for Being a Fan of SevereIdaho.Com……
Well its been dry and warm and even a bit smoky around Southeast Idaho. But all that looks to change by Thursday and last into Sunday. Looks like Monsoonal Moisture will slowly push back northward into the Highlands and eventually into the forecast area for a 30% chance for Wet and Dry Storms. The storms will start out Dry but eventually turn out wet with decent rainfall under the cores of most thunderstorms. No big speculation yet on the intensity of the storms but things can change quickly.
I hope you all got a chance at watching the Lunar Eclipse last night. I stayed up till around 4am watching the Eclipse. Watching the Moon slowly turn to Black and then Red was amazing. I did try to take some photos, but they didnt turn out as good as I hoped. From what I read, The next eclipse wont be for another possible 80 years. Simply amazing how everything works.
Well I am awaiting the Winter 2007/2008 outlook, They released a Fall Outlook and we look pretty Dryer than average and Warmer than average. Hopefully we still get some good storms. Stay Tuned…
Idaho Falls and My Area could see a thunderstorm in the next Hour. Recent radar trends show Convective development expanding in Coverage and A Thunderstorm is tracking Northeast and could impact our area shortly. Hail chances are slim with a 50% chance for Small hail. Severe Chances are still O%. This could change very quickly as the envrionment is quite unstable.
Slight Risk from the SPC has been expanded to cover basically all of Southeast Idaho and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers most this area as well. Severe Thunderstorm looks to Expire at Midnight tonight, so expectancies obviously keep severe weather going on well into the night. It is quiet as far as Severe Thunderstorms go. Only 1 thus far to speak of yet the storm was downgraded very quickly with hail remaining Pea sized only.
Stay Tuned for Urgent Weather alerts.
HURRICANE DEAN UPDATE——————————–
Hurricane Dean is still a Category 4 storm. The eye is not expected to Impact Jamaica which is good news, however Jamaica could still see winds anywhere from 60mph and more up to 100mph along with Extreme rainfall and potential flooding. There are Voluntary Evacuations already in place in TEXAS and with DEAN expected to Strengthen to a category 5 storm as it passes Jamiaca, concerns are rising very rapidly for Texans. I talked to my friends in Brownsville and they are getting ready to Leave when the Mandatory Evacuation Takes place. Hurricane DEAN is a deadly storm, Precautions should be taken immediately and thus far it sounds like Texas is ready for this Hurricane. The Yucatan Peninsula could see alot of Damage from this storm as the Track currently places Dean dead on into The Mexican Peninsula. Hopefully they are taking all necessary precautions.