SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE FOR WS 617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
135 PM MDT SUN AUG 19 2007
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0617.070819T1935Z-070820T0200Z/ ID .
IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNOCK BEAR LAKE BINGHAM BONNEVILLE
CARIBOU CLARK FREMONT JEFFERSON
MADISON TETON $$
I was under the impression that Today would be mostly a windy day without thunderstorms. Yet as I woke up and Do my regular routine of checking the Storm Prediction Center I noticed we are in the Slight risk area for possible Damaging Winds and Large Hail. A Vigorous upper level low will be moving into the area this afternoon and evening and into Tonight. The clear skies that occured all day today allowed for decent Heating of the ground which in turn acts as the Unstable trigger for thunderstorms. This trigger should be enough for maybe Severe Storms capable of Large hail and damaging winds along with a threat for possible Supercells and Even Bow Segments of thunderstorms which can and do occasionally produce winds in excess of 60mph with large hail. I dont think the threat is that real for Supercells and Bow Line Segment thunderstorms but you can never be too sure.
Be on the Lookout for Strong to severe thunderstorms, Listen to NOAA Radio and watch Local News for Weather bulletins. I will update this blog throughout the day to Update you of any possible Dangerous Storms.
Well it has been about 12 days since I last updated this Blog. With good reason of course. The weather has been on and off but when its on its wild. On August 16th we had a Very active Afternoon and Evening. One of which brought very frequent lightning and barely a drop of rain. I did manage to capture up to 20 new photos of Lightning and cloud structure. The lightning was simply amazing, there was thousands of Cloud to ground bolts along with many Crawlers and Cloud only lightning. I was able to capture many CG bolts and even witness a Transformer blowing from a deadly cg. The day started at around 3pm and lasted well into 3am. I was busy the whole day driving around and picking spots for good lightning shots and keeping up with the stronger storms. I did manage to Get on KIDK3 on August 17th at Noon and soon to be on the Postregister (Sunday or Monday’s Edition). August 17th was also busy, but the storms were more towards the wet stuff which makes photography a little more rougher due to Exposing expensive cameras to rain which we all know is not smart. Today was a hell of a day. A Severe Thunderstorm watch was posted for Southeast Idaho and around 8+ Severe Storms occured. The biggest concern was damaging wind, then large hail and then Excessive amounts of rain. No Severe Thunderstorms occured in my immediate area. They occured Mostly South of Idaho Falls to the Utah Border and east towards Wyoming. Not really any reports on the SPC website. One Tornado warning did occur south of Pocatello, but I havent heard of any confirmations of a tornado, let alone a funnel. I did not get any footage today or yesterday. The storms werent severe enough for me to chase down. In other words I prefer Cloud structure of a Meso or tornadic storm rather than damaging my car with hail the size of golfballs. lol. There was just too much rain as well.
Another Huge concern is the latest Hurricane “Dean”. Hurricane Dean is a Category 4 hurricane and is expected to Hit Jamaica by Sunday and the Island could see alot of damage with this storm if it infact stays at a Category 4 storm. Latest News is that if Dean hits Jamaica head on then the Island could be without power for up to a month. Several Hurricane chasers are already in Jamaica and several have mentioned that Jamaica Residents have not done the necessary Precautions such as Boarding up windows, etc etc. This could be a very dangerous situation. Current Hurricane Models are forecasting a track which could Impact the far SouthEastern Tip of Texas. Since I have friends there in Brownsville I am watching this storm like crazy. Although SevereIdaho.Com doesnt focus its Attention to Areas outside of Idaho we still make our best attempt to Inform the public of Dangerous situations such as Hurricane and other Tropical Weather phenomena. We hope to keep you updated throughout this Tropical Season but we ask that you rely on the National Hurricane Center and National News, etc for Weather Info that relates directly to your location. Thanks.
The latest with SevereIdaho.Com is that we have up to 30 New photos from August 16th and Early 17th in the Gallery and The Weather Forum has been opened up to the public. We dont anticipate a Climb in visitors yet on the forum and Do plan to do some Advertising to get more people to the forum.
Stay Tuned. More Updates on Dean and Local Weather coming soon. Thanks for stopping by….
A Few New Photos for your Enjoyment.
August 16th Thunderstorm Cloud Looking towards Ririe from Rigby.
Please visit http://www.severeidaho.com/gallery/thumbnails.php?album=7 For the Latest 2007 Photography.
Eastern Idaho is under the gun for severe weather today. Already a Mesoscale Discussion posted for a Possible Severe Weather Watch to cover possible Damaging Winds. The chance for small hail and maybe even some bigger hail is possible. The Severe Weather threat will be from Now until Sunset I believe or maybe even till midnight. Expecting thunderstorms to continue thru today with possible strong to severe thunderstorms in the next several hours. A thunderstorm has already occured in my immediate area with moderate rainfall but no winds or hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will most likely be issued anytime now.
Will update as the evening goes on and will Update for any Urgent messages.
Keep a close eye on the weather today. Watch Local News, Listen to NOAA Radio and be alert. Today could be a Severe Weather day with Large Hail and Damaging Winds. Atmosphere is destablizing rapidly as the Convective Cloud debris is Moving Northeast. Where clearing has occured and Surface heating was eefective there is an increase in Thunderstorm activity and this is expected to continue and eventually be a widespread occurence.
Already 2 Severe storms thus far with Large hail and winds in excess of 60 mph. Local NWS Pocatello office is expecting severe weather to occur.
For weather related Info.
The latest in weather around Southeast Idaho has for the most part been Hot and dry. Thunderstorms mostly occuring in the Higher terrain and Mountain areas. Some storms have even brushed the immediate forecast area, yet at the time it was already after sunset and Most Convective components had diminished by the time they areached our area, thus the storm weakening and eventually Ending all Activity.
The latest news is that it will remain hot and gradually get hotter with no relief in sight. This is thanks to an Upper Level High or better known as the 4 corner high which is popular for Interacting with a Upper level low and eventually entraining Moisture from Mexico and from the Pacific. Dewpoints have slowly been rising along with the temperature. Even Moisture readings are increasing. This could be the start to the Monsoon season which I dont believe has officially started yet in Arizona. This is pre monsoonal moisture but is acting as If the Monsoon is already underway due to the recent rise in Severe Weather in and around the Northwest along with Hot temps, higher dewpoints and a Repeat of day to day thunderstorm activity over higher terrain.
The Convective outlook has the Upper Snake River plain in the 5% outline for both hail and wind. The SPC also has our area in a 70% and 40% outline for general thunderstorm activity. Wouldnt be suprised to see Decent convection tommorow that will eventually spill into the Snake Plain and possibly bring some showers and thunderstorms. Storms I think for the most part will be wet but the Updraft concern could lead to possibly large hail and damaging winds. Maybe a slight risk might be added later which in most cases is true when the “See Text” is mentioned almost directly over us. The Local NWS Pocatello office did not do there usual 9-11pm Update. So Im thinking there trying to put together a reasonable forecast.
Latest Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook for tommorow………….
…NRN ROCKIES OF CENTRAL MT INT NERN WY…
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ID INTO THE WRN HALF OF MT SWWD THRU NRN UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING CYCLONICALLY FROM NWRN CA THRU SRN NV INTO
NERN UT TUESDAY EVENING PLACING AN AREA FROM SERN ID INTO S CENTRAL
MT UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW/FAVORABLE EXIT REGION. IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW…LOW LEVEL JET IS PROJECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SELY FLOW/LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ACROSS THIS REGION.
MODELS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT
LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. THUS…WILL ANTICIPATE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL MT…POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO SERN ID…WHERE UVVS WILL BECOME ENHANCED WITHIN
MOIST UNABLE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERNEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. MODEL HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
/40-45 KT/ FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Im anticipating a possible Severe Thunderstorm watch by 3pm for Parts of the Northwest including Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. Be sure to watch Local TV news and listen to NOAA radio or your local Radio station for Emergency Broadcasts if in Fact this does pan out.
The soon to be changing season usually comes with severe weather and this Tuesday thus far appears to have enough dynamics for a possible strong to severe weather event over Southeast Idaho. Currently 1500-2000 j/kg reads for Tuesday along with Dewpoints on the 50+ degree range definetely is cause for concern since those two alone indicate a strong moisture field and Unstable environment. NWS Pocatello briefly mentioned a Line of storms being the threat along the front. Area forecasts mentions Thunderstorms from Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon. Could possibly be seeing an all night event of thunderstorms which will allow for some great lightning photos. Ive been waiting for the Next update from the NWS pocatello, but no luck yet and waiting on midnight to check the SPC outlook for tuesday which could be interesting. Looking at the models myself and hearing the results from the pro’s is always nice cause I know more of what to look for and will be able to plan better if a chase scenario pops up.
Yes, It just so happens that in The Salmon area and North of Island Park could experience some possibly Severe Thunderstorms. Latest reports indicating 1/2 inch hail. As for our area here in the Upper Snake River plain it appears that it is unstable enough for a thunderstorm to inititate. For those that understand Lifted Indices, Our Lifted indices read -3 thru -5 which tells the story of an unstable air mass. I think the lack of really good moisture and Cape is limiting the potential for thunderstorm development. However, There is still around 4-5 hours left of Sunlight and I feel that as the Low moves east we could see a chance for some Convection around the forecast area and maybe even a Thunderstorm or two. Hopefully things could get going very soon. Tommorow appears to be too dry for any development but on Saturday there is another Slight risk for severe weather again to the north of us. Hopefully things could get going for our area again that day as well. With the Southwest flow and High Temperatures dominating the area the chances are getting better by the day. The Monsoon season is just around the corner and soon we will have the delight of Watching thunderstorms pop up in the evening and last all night. With that I will be taking tons of photos and shooting video to update the videos page… Stay Tuned…
Ive had alot of emails and requests from various people around the country asking when there will be new video added. I am currently going thru my arsenal of Video tapes and hope to have put together a Lightning Video kind of short movie together within the next month or two. Im going thru copyright information and seeing what I can and cant use and hope to get all that sorted out very soon. The video will be free as well. Stay Tuned…
SOUTHEAST IDAHO KITTENS UP FOR ADOPTION VERY SOON………
There will be 3 kittens available within the next month. 2 females and one male. They are currently 2 and 1/2 weeks old. They are loving and very adorable and have a wonderful Momma kitty. Please visit the gallery to see the kittens at=
And let me know by email if you are interested. In the email I would also like to know if you have raised a kitten before and just get to know you, We want these kittens to go to a great home and have very loving owners. Thanks…
My email is email@example.com
Thanks for stopping by….