Weather Update July 14 2007

The latest in weather around Southeast Idaho has for the most part been Hot and dry.  Thunderstorms mostly occuring in the Higher terrain and Mountain areas.  Some storms have even brushed the immediate forecast area, yet at the time it was already after sunset and Most Convective components had diminished by the time they areached our area, thus the storm weakening and eventually Ending all Activity. 

The latest news is that it will remain hot and gradually get hotter with no relief in sight.  This is thanks to an Upper Level High or better known as the 4 corner high which is popular for Interacting with a Upper level low and eventually entraining Moisture from Mexico and from the Pacific.  Dewpoints have slowly been rising along with the temperature.  Even Moisture readings are increasing.  This could be the start to the Monsoon season which I dont believe has officially started yet in Arizona.  This is pre monsoonal moisture but is acting as If the Monsoon is already underway due to the recent rise in Severe Weather in and around the Northwest along with Hot temps, higher dewpoints and a Repeat of day to day thunderstorm activity over higher terrain. 

The Convective outlook has the Upper Snake River plain in the 5% outline for both hail and wind.  The SPC also has our area in a 70% and 40% outline for general thunderstorm activity.  Wouldnt be suprised to see Decent convection tommorow that will eventually spill into the Snake Plain and possibly bring some showers and thunderstorms.  Storms I think for the most part will be wet but the Updraft concern could lead to possibly large hail and damaging winds.  Maybe a slight risk might be added later which in most cases is true when the “See Text” is mentioned almost directly over us.  The Local NWS Pocatello office did not do there usual 9-11pm Update.  So Im thinking there trying to put together a reasonable forecast. 

Stay Tuned. 

-gerrit

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